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Fortress

Forecast and Ski Conditions

Why doesn't this match the 48h forecast?

We're currently showing forecast weather and snowfall from two different Environment Canada (EC) models; one is the GEM 10km resolution forecast model, and the other is the HRDPS west 2.5km (high resolution) forecast model. Before these models start to run, EC needs to define the starting conditions for each cell in the model - this is more difficult with the higher resolution models since measurements aren't available in many (most) grid cells. As a result, the 24h grid may provide a indication of how the local trends vary more with terrain than the 10km grid because more topography can be taken into account, whereas in the 10km grid some of these dynamics are averaged.

In general, some weather patterns will result in very similar results between models, which can be interpreted with higher confidence; however, disagreement between the models may help provide an indication of uncertainty of the incoming weather pattern (e.g. snowfall amounts).

Why doesn't this match the 24h forecast?

We're currently showing forecast weather and snowfall from two different Environment Canada (EC) models; one is the GEM 10km resolution forecast model, and the other is the HRDPS west 2.5km (high resolution) forecast model, which we use for the short term 24h forecast. Before these models start to run, EC needs to define the starting conditions for each cell in the model - this is more difficult with the higher resolution models since measurements aren't available in many (most) grid cells. As a result, the 24h grid may provide a indication of how the local trends vary more with terrain than the 10km grid because more topography can be taken into account, whereas in the 10km grid some of these dynamics are averaged.

In general, some weather patterns will result in very similar results between models, which can be interpreted with higher confidence; however, disagreement between the models may help provide an indication of uncertainty of the incoming weather pattern (e.g. snowfall amounts).

Fortress Forecast Atmospheric Sounding

Experimental Plots: Atmospheric Forecast at Elevation

The following plots are experimental, showing temperature profiles vs. elevation over time, as well as dew-point depression, which is the difference between the temperature and the dew-point at a given location in the atmosphere.

Help with this Plot

24h Snowfall Forecast Map

24h Snowfall Forecast Map

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